2022 Election Analysis

Monday, January 09, 2023
This document is an attempt to re-focus attention on the 2022 election with as much context as possible. That means looking at final vote totals – numbers that most people stopped paying attention to around Thanksgiving while votes continued to be counted – along with taking stock of how candidates performed relative to their voter registration and the partisan performance of candidates higher on the ballot. It also means considering the full scope of money spent in each race, which obviously often correlates to electoral performance.

By aggregating this data and attempting to put it into context, it’s my hope that there will be a greater understanding of how voters viewed their candidates for local office and the issues that were most important this election cycle.

The 2022 Election Analysis can be downloaded here.

The bulk of this analysis examines non-partisan races throughout San Diego County for County and City offices. Elections with only one candidate were excluded from the meatier part of the analysis, but data for nearly every election and jurisdiction is available in the appendices.

Each election analyzed includes:

  • Party registration breakdown as of Election Day

  • Turnout and performance by Governor & U.S. Senate candidates within the district

  • Results of the election, including vote totals, percentages, margins of victory, and a breakdown of performance for each candidate among Early, Election Day, and Late ballots

  • Candidate fundraising and spending totals (Note: These numbers are aggregate for the entire cycle, meaning they include primary election fundraising numbers for those candidates who had a primary)

  • Independent expenditures / Party Member Communication in opposition or in support of candidates. Elections that did not see any independent expenditures will obviously not include this data.

The Appendices include:

  • Voter registration data as of Election Day for City and School Board elections

  • A breakdown of every election on the ballot by percentage, vote total, margin, and a breakdown of performance for each candidate among Early, Election Day, and Late ballots

  • A breakdown of partisan performance (Governor & U.S. Senate) by City and County districts