Tracking Trump's Shifting Support: California Districts from 2016 to 2024

The 2024 presidential election revealed fascinating changes in California's political landscape compared to 2016. Using The Ballot Book's comprehensive election data, we've analyzed how Trump's support evolved across all Assembly, State Senate, and Congressional districts during these two presidential cycles.

Understanding the Data

Before diving into the findings, it's important to note a key methodological strength in this analysis. Despite California undergoing redistricting between 2016 and 2024, The Ballot Book's unique data architecture recalculates historical election results within current district boundaries. This ensures true apples-to-apples comparisons across election cycles, eliminating the distortions that typically complicate multi-year analyses when district lines change.

The Findings: Districts Shifting Toward Trump

Our analysis reveals substantial movement in Trump's support levels, with the most dramatic increases occurring in predominantly Democratic areas.

Congressional Districts Moving Toward Trump

1. 29th Congressional District: +14.25% (16.78% → 31.03%)
2. 52nd Congressional District: +14.15% (23.94% → 38.09%)
3. 35th Congressional District: +12.83% (30.56% → 43.39%)
4. 43rd Congressional District: +12.43% (11.48% → 23.91%)
5. 44th Congressional District: +12.37% (19.14% → 31.51%)

Assembly Districts Moving Toward Trump

1. 43rd Assembly District: +17.51% (16.14% → 33.65%)
2. 57th Assembly District: +16.63% (5.43% → 22.06%)
3. 62nd Assembly District: +15.37% (18.63% → 34.00%)
4. 54th Assembly District: +14.72% (11.22% → 25.94%)
5. 80th Assembly District: +14.13% (26.08% → 40.21%)

State Senate Districts Moving Toward Trump

1. 18th State Senate District: +14.21% (27.98% → 42.19%)
2. 20th State Senate District: +13.12% (21.24% → 34.36%)
3. 35th State Senate District: +13.00% (12.60% → 25.60%)
4. 22nd State Senate District: +12.36% (29.13% → 41.49%)
5. 29th State Senate District: +11.97% (31.69% → 43.66%)

Districts Shifting Away From Trump

The districts showing movement away from Trump were primarily Republican-leaning areas, though the shifts were notably smaller in magnitude than those moving toward Trump.

Congressional Districts Moving Away From Trump

1. 48th Congressional District: -0.52% (56.94% → 56.42%)
2. 3rd Congressional District: -0.11% (50.45% → 50.34%)
3. 50th Congressional District: +0.13% (33.42% → 33.55%)
4. 40th Congressional District: +0.43% (49.07% → 49.50%)
5. 49th Congressional District: +0.48% (44.23% → 44.71%)

Assembly Districts Moving Away From Trump

1. 76th Assembly District: -0.90% (42.98% → 42.08%)
2. 47th Assembly District: -0.90% (47.79% → 46.89%)
3. 71st Assembly District: -0.79% (54.94% → 54.15%)
4. 75th Assembly District: -0.49% (56.17% → 55.68%)
5. 5th Assembly District: 0.00% (53.93% → 53.93%)

State Senate Districts Moving Away From Trump

1. 40th State Senate District: -0.81% (47.48% → 46.67%)
2. 19th State Senate District: -0.54% (51.02% → 50.48%)
3. 38th State Senate District: +0.32% (41.76% → 42.08%)
4. 6th State Senate District: +1.11% (47.87% → 48.98%)
5. 32nd State Senate District: +1.16% (54.93% → 56.09%)

What These Patterns Tell Us

These findings reveal a notable asymmetry in California's political shifts over the eight-year period. While traditionally Democratic districts saw double-digit increases in Trump support, Republican-leaning districts remained remarkably stable, with shifts of less than 1% in most cases.

The pattern suggests an increasing consolidation of Republican support in areas that were already Republican-leaning, while some traditionally Democratic areas have seen significant movement—though most remain majority Democratic even with these shifts.

The Data Behind the Analysis

This analysis demonstrates the power of having consistent, reliable data across multiple election cycles. The Ballot Book's database contains precinct-level results for all California elections since 2014, with historical results recalculated to match current district boundaries. This allows researchers and political professionals to identify genuine shifts in voter behavior without the distortions caused by redistricting.

Beyond the presidential results highlighted here, subscribers can examine how these shifts correlate with:

• Demographic patterns at the district level
• Results from down-ballot races and ballot measures
• Changes in voter registration and turnout patterns
• Historical partisan performance across multiple election cycles

Whether you're analyzing statewide trends or focusing on a specific jurisdiction, The Ballot Book provides the data infrastructure to identify meaningful patterns in California's complex political landscape.

Interested in exploring how voter preferences have shifted in your districts of interest? Sign up for The Ballot Book to access California's most comprehensive political database, with data covering over 1,500 jurisdictions and nearly 4,000 districts.