Blog

Data-driven insights into California politics, from local school boards to statewide races. We analyze voting patterns, demographic shifts, and electoral trends to help you understand what's really happening in California's political landscape.

Did SB 1439 Change Local Campaign Finance?

April 01, 2025

When SB 1439 became law in 2022, it aimed to curb donor influence by restricting local officials from voting on matters tied to recent contributors. New data from 95 California agencies shows that while overall fundraising and outside spending remain strong, the law may not have significantly changed how money moves through local politics.

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When Does a District Become Impossible to Win?

March 18, 2025

At what point does voter registration make a district unwinnable for Republicans or Democrats? Analyzing over 700 elections since 2014, we pinpoint the exact registration advantage where races become toss-ups and highlight the candidates who’ve defied the odds most dramatically.

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Navigating “Trump 2.0” in Southern California: A Data‐Driven Look

March 11, 2025

Southern California’s Republican candidates face a strategic dilemma heading into 2026: embrace Trump’s populism and energize core supporters, or pivot toward traditional Republican themes to appeal to moderates. Data from 150 cities shows income strongly shapes local political dynamics, revealing two distinct GOP factions—Trump-first populists and moderate, business-oriented Republicans.

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Which California Congressional Candidates Over or Underperformed in 2024?

March 04, 2025

Analyzing California’s 2024 congressional races using partisan baselines reveals subtle differences compared to Assembly results. While Assembly races showed a more notable statewide shift toward Republicans, congressional contests saw only minimal deviations. Highlights include notable overperformances and underperformances, and the factors that might explain these nuanced outcomes.

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Which California Assembly Candidates Over or Underperformed in 2024?

February 24, 2025

Our analysis reveals which California Assembly candidates outperformed expectations in 2024. Using The Ballot Book's comprehensive election database, we've identified districts where candidate performance bucked partisan trends, showing opportunities for both parties in future elections.

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