Blog | The Ballot Book

Election Analysis

How Trump, Harris, and Newsom Fared in California’s Proposed Districts

Aug 19, 2025 • 23 min read

Last week, California’s proposed congressional maps were released — but voter registration and census snapshots only tell part of the story. Using our precinct-level database, we re-tallied past elections to show how Trump, Harris, Newsom, and others would have performed inside these proposed districts. The result is a clearer picture of how the lines could reshape California’s political landscape, district by district.

Campaign Finance

2026’s Self-Funding Hopefuls Face a Tough Track Record

Aug 13, 2025 • 5 min read

Self-funding might buy name recognition, but in California’s biggest races it rarely buys victory. With the 2026 governor’s race already featuring major self-funders, our analysis of a decade’s worth of statewide and legislative campaigns shows why big checks haven’t translated into consistent wins—and why primaries are the one area where self-funders see better odds.

Campaign Finance

Bianco’s Donor Base in the LA Media Market Could Signal a GOP Edge

Aug 7, 2025 • 5 min read

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco has raised slightly more than rival Steve Hilton in California’s GOP gubernatorial primary—but the real story is where his money comes from. A broad base of small-dollar donors concentrated in the Los Angeles media market suggests Bianco may already have meaningful name recognition in the state’s most vote-rich region, giving him a strategic edge as the race unfolds.

Campaign Finance

What Early Money Tells Us About California's 2026 Governor Race

Aug 6, 2025 • 13 min read

Early fundraising patterns in California's 2026 Democratic governor primary reveal how candidates are building their campaigns and where they see their paths to victory. From small-dollar grassroots networks to self-funding strategies, geographic distribution and donor analysis offers insights into the strategic landscape of what promises to be a highly competitive race.

Campaign Finance

The Money Trail: Tracking Incumbent Contributions to 2026 Legislative Candidates

Aug 5, 2025 • 45 min read

California's sitting legislators are already writing checks to 2026 Assembly and Senate candidates, revealing early strategic priorities and political relationships. Our analysis tracks which incumbents are investing in which races and candidates.

New Feature

Introducing Our (Free) 2026 Primary Campaign Finance Overview

Aug 4, 2025 • 3 min read

California's June 2026 primary election is heating up, and we've just launched a comprehensive new tool to help you track the money behind every major race. Our new Campaign Finance Primary Overview gives you a complete financial picture of all candidates running for statewide and legislative offices, with data on fundraising, spending, cash on hand, and debt for over 200 candidates.

Campaign Finance

How Legislators Trade Grassroots Support for Institutional Money

Jul 29, 2025 • 4 min read

California legislators often start their political careers fueled by local, grassroots donations. But as they settle into office, much of that early support fades, replaced by a heavy reliance on institutional donors. Our analysis of campaign finance data since 2012 reveals how quickly individual donor retention drops—and how much money is left on the table when legislators fail to maintain those early relationships.

Election Analysis

What’s Driving the Latino Shift — Trump or the Party?

Jul 23, 2025 • 3 min read

Following the 2024 election, Latino voters showed a notable shift toward Donald Trump compared to 2020. But does this reflect a broader Republican trend or a phenomenon unique to Trump? Analyzing over 18,000 California precincts, The Ballot Book breaks down voting and registration data to explore the nature of this shift.

New Feature

Announcing Our New Turnout Projection Tool

Jul 8, 2025 • 5 min read

A new interactive feature from The Ballot Book lets you model how the partisan makeup of voters shifts as turnout rises or falls — using real historical data from every California jurisdiction since 2014.

Campaign Finance

The Major Donors Who Shaped the 2024 Legislative Elections

Jun 30, 2025 • 8 min read

Who were the biggest financial backers of California’s 2024 legislative candidates? We used The Ballot Book’s new campaign finance tools to analyze which major donors spent the most — and how often their candidates won. The results offer a revealing look at the individuals, businesses, and organizations shaping the future of the State Assembly and Senate.

The Ballot Book Blog

Latest Posts

How Trump, Harris, and Newsom Fared in California’s Proposed Districts

2026’s Self-Funding Hopefuls Face a Tough Track Record

Bianco’s Donor Base in the LA Media Market Could Signal a GOP Edge

What Early Money Tells Us About California's 2026 Governor Race

The Money Trail: Tracking Incumbent Contributions to 2026 Legislative Candidates

Introducing Our (Free) 2026 Primary Campaign Finance Overview

How Legislators Trade Grassroots Support for Institutional Money

What’s Driving the Latino Shift — Trump or the Party?

Announcing Our New Turnout Projection Tool

The Major Donors Who Shaped the 2024 Legislative Elections

Stay Informed

Popular Analysis

How Trump, Harris, and Newsom Fared in California’s Proposed Districts

Announcing Our New Turnout Projection Tool

When Does a District Become Impossible to Win?

Which California Assembly Candidates Over or Underperformed in 2024?

Bianco’s Donor Base in the LA Media Market Could Signal a GOP Edge

Navigating “Trump 2.0” in Southern California: A Data‐Driven Look

Topics