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The Ballot Book Blog

Data-driven insights into California politics, from local school boards to statewide races.

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Campaign Finance

How Legislators Trade Grassroots Support for Institutional Money

Jul 29, 2025 • 4 min read

California legislators often start their political careers fueled by local, grassroots donations. But as they settle into office, much of that early support fades, replaced by a heavy reliance on institutional donors. Our analysis of campaign finance data since 2012 reveals how quickly individual donor retention drops—and how much money is left on the table when legislators fail to maintain those early relationships.

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Election Analysis

What’s Driving the Latino Shift — Trump or the Party?

Jul 23, 2025 • 3 min read

Following the 2024 election, Latino voters showed a notable shift toward Donald Trump compared to 2020. But does this reflect a broader Republican trend or a phenomenon unique to Trump? Analyzing over 18,000 California precincts, The Ballot Book breaks down voting and registration data to explore the nature of this shift.

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New Feature

Announcing Our New Turnout Projection Tool

Jul 8, 2025 • 5 min read

A new interactive feature from The Ballot Book lets you model how the partisan makeup of voters shifts as turnout rises or falls — using real historical data from every California jurisdiction since 2014.

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Campaign Finance

The Major Donors Who Shaped the 2024 Legislative Elections

Jun 30, 2025 • 8 min read

Who were the biggest financial backers of California’s 2024 legislative candidates? We used The Ballot Book’s new campaign finance tools to analyze which major donors spent the most — and how often their candidates won. The results offer a revealing look at the individuals, businesses, and organizations shaping the future of the State Assembly and Senate.

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New Feature

[New Feature] Local + Legislative Results Now Mapped

Jun 26, 2025 • 1 min read

Now you can view how each precinct voted in state legislative and local races—including city council, school board, and more. Explore newly added results from 2022, 2024, and past legislative cycles going back to 2014.

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Campaign Finance

Who’s Backing the Right Candidates in Sacramento?

Jun 24, 2025 • 10 min read

Discover which California political committees are best at picking winning candidates. Our analysis of three recent election cycles reveals the top-performing PACs, their hit rates, and what it says about influence in state politics.

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Campaign Finance

Tracking Early Fundraising in the 2026 Governor’s Race

Jun 17, 2025 • 3 min read

With the 2026 primary approaching, early fundraising numbers offer a glimpse into which gubernatorial candidates are gaining momentum — and who might be stalling. This breakdown uses data from The Ballot Book’s campaign finance platform to track who’s raising, spending, and signaling viability.

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Election Analysis

Why Some California Tax Measures Win and Others Fail

May 13, 2025 • 5 min read

We analyzed more than a decade of California ballot measures to reveal the hidden factors behind voter approval of local taxes. Discover how ballot language, tax types, and strategic framing shape the outcomes of tax proposals—and learn which specific combinations succeed most often.

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Election Analysis

Proposition 33 Analysis: Who Supported Rent Control?

Apr 15, 2025 • 7 min read

What explains support for rent control in California? Our analysis of Proposition 33 reveals that it’s not just about income or affordability—it's about identity. Voter registration, housing tenure, generational divides, and immigrant communities all play powerful, independent roles in shaping how Californians view rent regulation. Using data from The Ballot Book, we explore which cities supported the measure and why.

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Popular Analysis
When Does a District Become Impossible to Win?
Mar 18, 2025 • Election Analysis
What’s Driving the Latino Shift — Trump or the Party?
Jul 23, 2025 • Election Analysis
Who’s Backing the Right Candidates in Sacramento?
Jun 24, 2025 • Campaign Finance
The Major Donors Who Shaped the 2024 Legislative Elections
Jun 30, 2025 • Campaign Finance
California's Dramatic Shift on Criminal Justice: A Decade of Change
Apr 8, 2025 • Election Analysis
Tracking Early Fundraising in the 2026 Governor’s Race
Jun 17, 2025 • Campaign Finance
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Election Analysis Campaign Finance New Feature