Data-driven insights into California politics, from local school boards to statewide races. We analyze voting patterns, demographic shifts, and electoral trends to help you understand what's really happening in California's political landscape.
April 01, 2025
When SB 1439 became law in 2022, it aimed to curb donor influence by restricting local officials from voting on matters tied to recent contributors. New data from 95 California agencies shows that while overall fundraising and outside spending remain strong, the law may not have significantly changed how money moves through local politics.
Read moreMarch 18, 2025
At what point does voter registration make a district unwinnable for Republicans or Democrats? Analyzing over 700 elections since 2014, we pinpoint the exact registration advantage where races become toss-ups and highlight the candidates who’ve defied the odds most dramatically.
Read moreMarch 11, 2025
Southern California’s Republican candidates face a strategic dilemma heading into 2026: embrace Trump’s populism and energize core supporters, or pivot toward traditional Republican themes to appeal to moderates. Data from 150 cities shows income strongly shapes local political dynamics, revealing two distinct GOP factions—Trump-first populists and moderate, business-oriented Republicans.
Read moreMarch 04, 2025
Analyzing California’s 2024 congressional races using partisan baselines reveals subtle differences compared to Assembly results. While Assembly races showed a more notable statewide shift toward Republicans, congressional contests saw only minimal deviations. Highlights include notable overperformances and underperformances, and the factors that might explain these nuanced outcomes.
Read moreFebruary 24, 2025
Our analysis reveals which California Assembly candidates outperformed expectations in 2024. Using The Ballot Book's comprehensive election database, we've identified districts where candidate performance bucked partisan trends, showing opportunities for both parties in future elections.
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