A Week Out, Prop 50 Turnout Remains Soft as Democrats Build an Edge

With a week left until Election Day, California’s ballot-return data show Proposition 50 turnout still lagging behind the 2021 recall — but with Democrats slightly widening their advantage in returned ballots.

While there are many elections to draw comparisons from, 2021 remains the most useful reference point. Both that year’s recall and this year’s Proposition 50 are single-issue special elections — simple ballots with one or two questions, rather than crowded primary or general ballots. Those broader contests typically see a late surge in returns; these narrower, lower-information elections tend to follow a steadier, more linear turnout curve.

If you missed last week's more in depth analysis, be sure to read it as well. 

According to the latest tracker from Political Data Inc., about 21 percent of the 22.9 million ballots mailed statewide have been returned. That compares to 29 percent at the same point during the 2021 recall — meaning returns are running at roughly 72 percent of the 2021 pace.

If that trend holds, overall turnout for Prop 50 is likely to land on the lower side — somewhere in the high-30s or low-40s percentage-wise, similar to what California saw in its March 2024 and June 2022 primaries.

Party Breakdown

At this point, Democrats account for 52 percent of returned ballots, compared to 27 percent for Republicans and 21 percent for independents and others.

Earlier in the month, Democrats made up 50 percent of returns compared to 45 percent of mailed ballots (+5), while Republicans were at 28 percent of returns and 25 percent of mailed ballots (+3). Since then, Democrats have gained roughly two points (and are now +7), and Republicans have slipped by about one (and are now +2), widening the gap slightly.

What’s Driving the Shift

A few factors could explain why Democrats have gained some ground in the final stretch:

1. Reduced spending from the “No” side. Opponents have scaled back advertising, likely signaling a concession that the measure is likely to pass.

2. High-profile national involvement. Major Democratic figures — including Barack Obama — have lent their names and voices to the “Yes” effort, potentially boosting turnout among base voters.

3. Momentum from the “No Kings” protests. The nationwide demonstrations, including several in California, may have energized progressives and drawn renewed attention to the measure.

The Bottom Line

Turnout remains well below the 2021 recall pace, and nothing in the data suggests this will become a high-participation election. But within that smaller electorate, Democrats have consolidated their advantage, while independents continue to lag. The composition still points toward a low-turnout, blue-leaning result.