Election Analysis

Why Some California Tax Measures Win and Others Fail

We analyzed more than a decade of California ballot measures to reveal the hidden factors behind voter approval of local taxes. Discover how ballot language, tax types, and strategic framing shape the outcomes of tax proposals—and learn which specific combinations succeed most often.

Tracking Trump's Shifting Support: California Districts from 2016 to 2024

Explore how Trump support shifted across California districts between 2016-2024. Our data reveals surprising double-digit gains in Democratic areas while Republican districts remained stable. See the complete analysis with The Ballot Book's redistricting-adjusted data.

Proposition 33 Analysis: Who Supported Rent Control?

What explains support for rent control in California? Our analysis of Proposition 33 reveals that it’s not just about income or affordability—it's about identity. Voter registration, housing tenure, generational divides, and immigrant communities all play powerful, independent roles in shaping how Californians view rent regulation. Using data from The Ballot Book, we explore which cities supported the measure and why.

California's Dramatic Shift on Criminal Justice: A Decade of Change

In 2014, California voters passed Proposition 47, reducing certain non-violent offenses from felonies to misdemeanors. Ten years later, Proposition 36 (2024) reversed course by increasing penalties for theft and drug offenses. Using The Ballot Book's comprehensive election data, we analyzed how California cities shifted their stance on criminal justice over this decade.

When Does a District Become Impossible to Win?

At what point does voter registration make a district unwinnable for Republicans or Democrats? Analyzing over 700 elections since 2014, we pinpoint the exact registration advantage where races become toss-ups and highlight the candidates who’ve defied the odds most dramatically.

Navigating “Trump 2.0” in Southern California: A Data‐Driven Look

Southern California’s Republican candidates face a strategic dilemma heading into 2026: embrace Trump’s populism and energize core supporters, or pivot toward traditional Republican themes to appeal to moderates. Data from 150 cities shows income strongly shapes local political dynamics, revealing two distinct GOP factions—Trump-first populists and moderate, business-oriented Republicans.

Which California Congressional Candidates Over or Underperformed in 2024?

Analyzing California’s 2024 congressional races using partisan baselines reveals subtle differences compared to Assembly results. While Assembly races showed a more notable statewide shift toward Republicans, congressional contests saw only minimal deviations. Highlights include notable overperformances and underperformances, and the factors that might explain these nuanced outcomes.

Which California Assembly Candidates Over or Underperformed in 2024?

Our analysis reveals which California Assembly candidates outperformed expectations in 2024. Using The Ballot Book's comprehensive election database, we've identified districts where candidate performance bucked partisan trends, showing opportunities for both parties in future elections.