What’s Driving the Latino Shift — Trump or the Party?

Following the 2024 presidential election, significant attention has been given to the apparent shift among Latino voters toward Donald Trump compared to 2020. Yet a key question remains: is this shift evidence of a broader realignment toward the Republican Party, or is it specific to Trump’s unique campaign style and platform? In other words, are Latinos voting Republican because of Trump, or is Trump’s performance a symptom of a larger change already underway?

Using The Ballot Book’s precinct-level database, we analyzed over 18,000 precincts in California, comparing the 2020 and 2024 general elections. To ensure a fair comparison, we grouped precincts into fixed Latino demographic bands based on their share of registered Hispanic voters, then examined Trump’s vote share alongside that of Republican legislative candidates. We also reviewed voter registration trends to understand longer-term changes.

The results show a clear and measurable shift toward Trump in every Latino band. In precincts that are 80–100 percent Latino, Trump’s share of the vote rose from 19.3 percent in 2020 to 32.1 percent in 2024. Republican legislative candidates also improved, though by smaller margins. In heavily Latino precincts, the average Republican legislative candidate increased their share by about 7.6 points, compared to Trump’s 12.8-point increase, indicating that at least part of the Republican gains were tied to Trump’s presence on the ballot.

To better understand how Republican gains varied by type of race, we also compared the performance of federal candidates (Congressional) versus state legislative candidates across the same Latino demographic bands.

However, there are important caveats. Latinos still vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, and Republicans remain far from winning a majority of Latino voters. The significance of this shift lies in its potential effect on future close races, particularly in districts with large Latino populations where even modest changes can alter outcomes. Legislative results are also influenced by incumbency — both Democratic and Republican — which can dampen shifts in either direction. Many 2024 contests involved long-established Democratic incumbents in Latino districts, but it is difficult to determine precisely how much the presence of incumbents, on either side, shaped the overall movement toward Republicans.

The voter registration data further illustrates a gradual change. Between 2020 and 2024, the share of Latino voters registered as Republicans grew from 14.7 percent to 18.1 percent. While Democrats maintain a substantial lead, this shift indicates that the Republican share of the Latino electorate is expanding.

While the data confirms that Republican performance among Latinos improved in 2024 compared to 2020, it remains uncertain whether this trend will persist beyond Trump’s candidacy. Both presidential elections in the dataset featured Trump on the ballot, making it difficult to separate his personal influence from any broader partisan shifts. Ultimately, the data shows that Latino voters remain a reliably Democratic bloc overall, but the gains made by Republicans between 2020 and 2024 — especially in heavily Latino districts — mark a meaningful shift that could influence the balance of future elections.