Which California Congressional Candidates Over or Underperformed in 2024?
If you caught our recent overview of Assembly candidates’ over/under performance, you know how we use a district’s “partisan baseline” to compare a candidate’s actual vote share against historical voting behavior. For those new to this concept, check out our previous post on Assembly races for a detailed explanation of the methodology.
Below, you’ll find our 2024 analysis for congressional seats (and at the end of the post is the full data table). We measure each candidate’s performance against the district’s baseline, then determine whether they’ve overperformed or underperformed. We’ll also highlight notable standouts who most exceeded or missed these expectations.
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Party Averages and Standouts
Democratic Party
- Number of candidates: 47
- Simple average over/under performance: –0.18%
Top Five Overperformers (vs. Baseline)
- Jimmy Panetta (CA-19): +3.33%
- Scott Peters (CA-50): +3.12%
- Salud Carbajal (CA-24): +2.94%
- Will Rollins (CA-41): +2.41%
- Raul Ruiz (CA-25): +2.36%
Top Five Underperformers (vs. Baseline)
- Laura Friedman (CA-30): –7.39%
- Luz Maria Rivas (CA-29): –5.21%
- Maxine Waters (CA-43): –4.86%
- Rudy Salas (CA-22): –4.46%
- Nancy Pelosi (CA-11): –4.08%
Republican Party
- Number of candidates: 47
- Simple average over/under performance: +0.18%
Top Five Overperformers (vs. Baseline)
- Alex Balekian (CA-30): +7.39%
- Benito Benny Bernal (CA-29): +5.21%
- Steve Williams (CA-43): +4.86%
- David G. Valadao (CA-22): +4.46%
- Bruce Lou (CA-11): +4.08%
Top Five Underperformers (vs. Baseline)
- Jason Michael Anderson (CA-19): –3.33%
- Peter J. Bono (CA-50): –3.12%
- Thomas Cole (CA-24): –2.94%
- Ken Calvert (CA-41): –2.41%
- Ian M. Weeks (CA-25): –2.36%
Key Observations
-
Close Races and Marginal Shifts
Similar to the Assembly outcomes, deviations from the baseline can significantly impact final results in competitive districts. For instance, in CA-22, David Valadao’s substantial +4.46% edge over the Republican baseline secured his seat against Democrat Rudy Salas, who underperformed by –4.46% relative to the district’s Democratic norm. Understanding these distinctions can provide valuable insights into voter behavior across different election levels. -
High-Profile Incumbents Falling Short
Some of the state’s most recognizable names underperformed expectations. Nancy Pelosi in CA-11 posted a –4.08% shift relative to her district’s baseline, and Maxine Waters in CA-43 came in at –4.86%. While both still won comfortably, those dips highlight a broader pattern of Democratic incumbents coming in slightly under baseline statewide. -
Strong Republican Overperformances in Deep-Blue Areas
Alex Balekian (CA-30) exceeded the GOP baseline by over seven points in a heavily Democratic district. While that wasn’t enough to flip the seat, it suggests he may have effectively tapped into issues the incumbent overlooked, executed a highly robust campaign strategy, or benefited from unique candidate qualities. Similar variables might also explain why other Republicans significantly exceeded their baselines. -
Party-Wide Shift Mirrors Assembly Trend
While our analysis of congressional candidates' average performance initially seems similar to Assembly races—Republicans slightly outperforming their baselines—there's an interesting divergence worth noting. In Assembly races, Democrats underperformed their baselines by about 1.36 points on average, while Republicans exceeded theirs by the same margin, indicating a notable statewide shift toward Republicans. In contrast, the performance gap in Congressional races was minimal, with Democrats nearly matching their baseline (-0.18%) and Republicans slightly outperforming (+0.18%).
This smaller gap could suggest several factors. There might have been slightly more ticket-splitting at the congressional level, potentially reflecting unique voter attitudes toward congressional candidates versus Assembly candidates. It may also indicate differing levels of voter dissatisfaction, with Assembly incumbents possibly facing more negative sentiment than their congressional counterparts.
Final Thoughts
Below is an the full table listing results. Our baseline comparisons give a clearer picture of where candidates truly outperformed or fell short of historical voting behavior—beyond what raw registration figures or raw vote shares might imply. For deeper details on the baseline methodology itself, check out our previous post on Assembly races. And if you’re interested in even more granular insights from across election cycles, consider subscribing to The Ballot Book to access our comprehensive California database.
Stay tuned for more analyses as we continue unpacking the 2024 results across California’s political landscape.
| District | Candidate | Vote % | District Baseline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Penelope Yee (D) | 34.66% | 36.47% | -1.81% |
| 1 | Doug LaMalfa (R)* | 65.34% | 63.53% | +1.81% |
| 2 | Jared Huffman (D)* | 71.88% | 71.78% | +0.10% |
| 2 | Chris Coulombe (R) | 28.12% | 28.22% | -0.10% |
| 3 | Jessica Morse (D) | 44.53% | 44.84% | -0.31% |
| 3 | Kevin Kiley (R)* | 55.47% | 55.16% | +0.31% |
| 4 | Mike Thompson (D)* | 66.46% | 64.82% | +1.64% |
| 4 | John Munn (R) | 33.54% | 35.18% | -1.64% |
| 5 | Michael J. "Mike" Barkley (D) | 38.23% | 39.79% | -1.56% |
| 5 | Tom McClintock (R)* | 61.77% | 60.21% | +1.56% |
| 6 | Ami Bera (D)* | 57.62% | 55.95% | +1.67% |
| 6 | Christine Bish (R) | 42.38% | 44.05% | -1.67% |
| 7 | Doris Matsui (D)* | 66.75% | 65.32% | +1.43% |
| 7 | Tom Silva (R) | 33.25% | 34.68% | -1.43% |
| 8 | John Garamendi (D)* | 73.97% | 74.75% | -0.78% |
| 8 | Rudy Recile (R) | 26.03% | 25.25% | +0.78% |
| 9 | Josh Harder (D)* | 51.79% | 50.57% | +1.22% |
| 9 | Kevin Lincoln (R) | 48.21% | 49.43% | -1.22% |
| 10 | Mark DeSaulnier (D)* | 66.47% | 64.69% | +1.78% |
| 10 | Katherine Piccinini (R) | 33.53% | 35.31% | -1.78% |
| 11 | Nancy Pelosi (D)* | 81.03% | 85.11% | -4.08% |
| 11 | Bruce Lou (R) | 18.97% | 14.89% | +4.08% |
| 12 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 13 | Adam Gray (D) | 50.04% | 49.86% | +0.18% |
| 13 | John Duarte (R)* | 49.96% | 50.14% | -0.18% |
| 14 | Eric Swalwell (D)* | 67.75% | 68.84% | -1.09% |
| 14 | Vin Kruttiventi (R) | 32.25% | 31.16% | +1.09% |
| 15 | Kevin Mullin (D)* | 73.10% | 75.54% | -2.44% |
| 15 | Anna Cheng Kramer (R) | 26.90% | 24.46% | +2.44% |
| 16 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 17 | Ro Khanna (D)* | 67.66% | 70.50% | -2.84% |
| 17 | Anita Chen (R) | 32.34% | 29.50% | +2.84% |
| 18 | Zoe Lofgren (D)* | 64.63% | 67.41% | -2.78% |
| 18 | Peter D. Hernandez (R) | 35.37% | 32.59% | +2.78% |
| 19 | Jimmy Panetta (D)* | 69.30% | 65.97% | +3.33% |
| 19 | Jason Michael Anderson (R) | 30.70% | 34.03% | -3.33% |
| 20 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 21 | Jim Costa (D)* | 52.57% | 53.75% | -1.18% |
| 21 | Michael Maher (R) | 47.43% | 46.25% | +1.18% |
| 22 | Rudy Salas (D) | 46.58% | 51.04% | -4.46% |
| 22 | David G. Valadao (R)* | 53.42% | 48.96% | +4.46% |
| 23 | Derek Marshall (D) | 39.86% | 40.71% | -0.85% |
| 23 | Jay Obernolte (R)* | 60.14% | 59.29% | +0.85% |
| 24 | Salud Carbajal (D)* | 62.70% | 59.76% | +2.94% |
| 24 | Thomas Cole (R) | 37.30% | 40.24% | -2.94% |
| 25 | Raul Ruiz (D)* | 56.25% | 53.89% | +2.36% |
| 25 | Ian M. Weeks (R) | 43.75% | 46.11% | -2.36% |
| 26 | Julia Brownley (D)* | 56.05% | 54.42% | +1.63% |
| 26 | Michael Koslow (R) | 43.95% | 45.58% | -1.63% |
| 27 | George Whitesides (D) | 51.33% | 50.95% | +0.38% |
| 27 | Mike Garcia (R)* | 48.67% | 49.05% | -0.38% |
| 28 | Judy Chu (D)* | 64.93% | 63.16% | +1.77% |
| 28 | April A. Verlato (R) | 35.07% | 36.84% | -1.77% |
| 29 | Luz Maria Rivas (D)* | 69.78% | 74.99% | -5.21% |
| 29 | Benito Benny Bernal (R) | 30.22% | 25.01% | +5.21% |
| 30 | Laura Friedman (D)* | 68.38% | 75.77% | -7.39% |
| 30 | Alex Balekian (R) | 31.62% | 24.23% | +7.39% |
| 31 | Gil Cisneros (D)* | 59.73% | 61.03% | -1.30% |
| 31 | Daniel Jose Bocic Martinez (R) | 40.27% | 38.97% | +1.30% |
| 32 | Brad Sherman (D)* | 66.20% | 67.54% | -1.34% |
| 32 | Larry Thompson (R) | 33.80% | 32.46% | +1.34% |
| 33 | Pete Aguilar (D)* | 58.81% | 57.42% | +1.39% |
| 33 | Tom Herman (R) | 41.19% | 42.58% | -1.39% |
| 34 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 35 | Norma J. Torres (D)* | 58.41% | 58.24% | +0.17% |
| 35 | Mike Cargile (R) | 41.59% | 41.76% | -0.17% |
| 36 | Ted W. Lieu (D)* | 68.72% | 67.62% | +1.10% |
| 36 | Melissa Toomim (R) | 31.28% | 32.38% | -1.10% |
| 37 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 38 | Linda T. Sánchez (D)* | 59.84% | 60.14% | -0.30% |
| 38 | Eric J. Ching (R) | 40.16% | 39.86% | +0.30% |
| 39 | Mark Takano (D)* | 56.69% | 57.11% | -0.42% |
| 39 | David Serpa (R) | 43.31% | 42.89% | +0.42% |
| 40 | Joe Kerr (D) | 44.74% | 44.89% | -0.15% |
| 40 | Young Kim (R)* | 55.26% | 55.11% | +0.15% |
| 41 | Will Rollins (D) | 48.31% | 45.90% | +2.41% |
| 41 | Ken Calvert (R)* | 51.69% | 54.10% | -2.41% |
| 42 | Robert Garcia (D)* | 68.14% | 68.58% | -0.44% |
| 42 | John Briscoe (R) | 31.86% | 31.42% | +0.44% |
| 43 | Maxine Waters (D)* | 75.07% | 79.93% | -4.86% |
| 43 | Steve Williams (R) | 24.93% | 20.07% | +4.86% |
| 44 | Nanette Diaz Barragán (D)* | 71.37% | 71.59% | -0.22% |
| 44 | Roger Groh (R) | 28.63% | 28.41% | +0.22% |
| 45 | Derek Tran (D) | 50.10% | 49.48% | +0.62% |
| 45 | Michelle Steel (R)* | 49.90% | 50.52% | -0.62% |
| 46 | Lou Correa (D)* | 63.43% | 61.41% | +2.02% |
| 46 | David Pan (R) | 36.57% | 38.59% | -2.02% |
| 47 | Dave Min (D) | 51.44% | 50.13% | +1.31% |
| 47 | Scott Baugh (R) | 48.56% | 49.87% | -1.31% |
| 48 | Stephen Houlahan (D) | 40.71% | 39.11% | +1.60% |
| 48 | Darrell E. Issa (R)* | 59.29% | 60.89% | -1.60% |
| 49 | Mike Levin (D)* | 52.17% | 50.85% | +1.32% |
| 49 | Matt Gunderson (R) | 47.83% | 49.15% | -1.32% |
| 50 | Scott Peters (D)* | 64.27% | 61.15% | +3.12% |
| 50 | Peter J. Bono (R) | 35.73% | 38.85% | -3.12% |
| 51 | Sara Jacobs (D)* | 60.70% | 60.02% | +0.68% |
| 51 | Bill Wells (R) | 39.30% | 39.98% | -0.68% |
| 52 | Juan Vargas (D)* | 66.31% | 65.34% | +0.97% |
| 52 | Justin Lee (R) | 33.69% | 34.66% | -0.97% |
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