Prop 50’s Early Returns Offer a Glimpse of the Final Result

With about two weeks left until Election Day for the November 4th special election on Proposition 50, we now have enough data to start drawing early comparisons to past elections — and to get a sense of what the numbers might be hinting at.

The most useful reference point is 2021, when Californians voted in another high-profile, off-cycle statewide contest: the recall attempt against Governor Gavin Newsom.

According to the Ballot Tracker published by Political Data Inc., 17 days before that election, 16 percent of mailed ballots had been returned (22.2 million sent, 3.5 million returned).

By comparison, at 18 days out this year, Proposition 50 sits lower: just 9.56 percent of ballots have been returned statewide (23 million sent, 2.2 million returned).

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That means ballots are being returned at roughly 60 percent of the pace seen in 2021.

If that pattern holds, total turnout could end up near 35 percent — similar to what California saw in its March 2024 and June 2022 primary elections.

Still, the comparison isn’t entirely apples-to-apples. The recall election featured two questions on the ballot — one on whether to remove the governor, and another on which of 46 candidates should replace him — whereas Proposition 50 offers a single, technical-sounding measure about redistricting. The snapshots are also taken a day apart (17 days out in 2021 vs. 18 in 2025), and differences in how ballots are mailed or processed can subtly affect mid-cycle comparisons. None of these distinctions change the broader trend, but they’re worth keeping in mind if final turnout numbers diverge later.

Why the Gap?

Both campaigns have tried to frame Proposition 50 as existential. Supporters call it a necessary check on Republican gerrymandering in Texas; opponents warn it would politicize California’s own redistricting process. But even with millions spent, a measure about drawing district lines doesn’t stir the same emotion as a governor fighting for his job.

In 2021, Newsom’s recall carried unmistakable human drama: his fate on the line, a circus of 46 replacement candidates, and wall-to-wall national media coverage. Proposition 50, by contrast, deals in abstract mechanics — important ones, but far removed from personality-driven stakes. The ballot-return data suggests that framing hasn’t been enough to capture casual voters.

Partisan Breakdown

At this point in 2021, ballot returns broke down as follows:

• Democrats: 54.2 percent
• Republicans: 23.8 percent
• Independents/Other: 10.7 percent

When all ballots were counted, the composition of the official results shifted to:

• Democrats: 48.61 percent
• Republicans: 28.3 percent
• Independents/Other: 23.09 percent

That late-stage Republican surge reflected an electorate still skeptical of mail voting, a hangover from Trump’s 2020 rhetoric discouraging it.

So far, for Proposition 50, the breakdown is:

• Democrats: 50.5 percent
• Republicans: 28.5 percent
• Independents/Other: 21.0 percent

That picture looks stronger for Republicans — they’ve already reached a share of returned ballots roughly equal to their final 2021 mark. On the surface, that might suggest relatively higher GOP enthusiasm amid lower overall turnout.

But turnout rate by party complicates the picture. In 2021, at this same point in the cycle, 19 percent of registered Democrats had returned ballots, compared to 16 percent of Republicans — a modest but clear enthusiasm gap. In 2025, both parties are currently tied at roughly 11 percent turnout.

That could indicate that the enthusiasm gap has tightened — or simply that Republican voters, now far more comfortable with mail voting than they were four years ago, are returning their ballots earlier.

The party’s messaging has indeed shifted from suspicion to mobilization, encouraging early returns — a reversal that may inflate GOP numbers in the early data without necessarily signaling higher overall energy.

What It All Means

In 2021, Gavin Newsom ultimately defeated the recall 61.9 percent to 38.1 percent — a 23.8-point margin. But the race didn’t always look that comfortable.

A UC Berkeley poll found the governor leading just 50–47 among likely voters weeks before the election.

An August Emerson College poll found 46 percent in favor of recalling Newsom, 48 percent opposed, and 6 percent undecided.

Once the recall campaign successfully framed the election in partisan terms — rallying Democrats by emphasizing what was at stake — voters largely defaulted to party lines, and Newsom ended up expanding his margin beyond both 2018 and 2022. That pattern highlights a recurring truth in California politics: when an issue is complex or ambiguous, voters tend to fall back on partisan cues. When it’s not obvious what a “yes” or “no” vote really does, people look to their tribe for direction. In contrast, when the substance of a measure is straightforward — something voters feel they can intuitively evaluate — partisanship exerts less control, and outcomes can diverge from party expectations.

A similar dynamic may be unfolding with Proposition 50. Early polling showed a close race, but those toplines were based mostly on the ballot question’s wording, not the partisan context that millions of dollars in TV and digital ads are now reinforcing. The more the campaigns cast it as a fight between red and blue, the more voters who might otherwise shrug at the details are likely to align along familiar partisan lines.

And that’s where the math gets difficult for Republicans. If Democrats ultimately make up about half of all voters — as current returns indicate — and the campaign’s messaging continues to cast the measure as a stand against Donald Trump (who lost California by 20 points in 2024), Republicans would need near-unanimous opposition among their own ranks and an overwhelming majority of independents to prevail.

Conclusion

Proposition 50 may not inspire the same theater as a gubernatorial recall, but the dynamics rhyme. Low information, modest enthusiasm, and partisan signaling tend to produce predictable results in a state as polarized as California. If the measure remains abstract in voters’ minds, partisan defaults will likely decide it — and in California, that’s rarely good news for the right.