The Ballot Book Blog

Navigating “Trump 2.0” in Southern California: A Data‐Driven Look

Southern California’s Republican candidates face a strategic dilemma heading into 2026: embrace Trump’s populism and energize core supporters, or pivot toward traditional Republican themes to appeal to moderates. Data from 150 cities shows income strongly shapes local political dynamics, revealing two distinct GOP factions—Trump-first populists and moderate, business-oriented Republicans.

Which California Congressional Candidates Over or Underperformed in 2024?

Analyzing California’s 2024 congressional races using partisan baselines reveals subtle differences compared to Assembly results. While Assembly races showed a more notable statewide shift toward Republicans, congressional contests saw only minimal deviations. Highlights include notable overperformances and underperformances, and the factors that might explain these nuanced outcomes.

Which California Assembly Candidates Over or Underperformed in 2024?

Our analysis reveals which California Assembly candidates outperformed expectations in 2024. Using The Ballot Book's comprehensive election database, we've identified districts where candidate performance bucked partisan trends, showing opportunities for both parties in future elections.