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Understanding Partisan Lean
Quick Summary:

The partisan lean number shows a weighted average of how this district voted in statewide races over the past four election cycles. A positive number (D+) indicates the district tends to vote more Democratic, while a negative number (R+) indicates it tends to vote more Republican.

What Goes Into This Number

We calculate this by:

  • Looking at all statewide races from the last four election cycles, including:
    • President
    • U.S. Senate
    • Governor
    • Lieutenant Governor
    • Attorney General
    • Secretary of State
    • Controller
    • Treasurer
    • Insurance Commissioner
  • For each race:
    • We calculate the margin between the Democratic and Republican candidates
    • We only include races where both major parties had candidates
  • Recent elections count more heavily in the average:
    • Most recent cycle: 40%
    • Second most recent: 30%
    • Third most recent: 20%
    • Fourth most recent: 10%
Reading The Number
  • D+ indicates a Democratic-leaning district
    • Based on a weighted average of Democratic vs. Republican margins
    • Higher numbers suggest stronger Democratic performance
  • R+ indicates a Republican-leaning district
    • Based on a weighted average of Republican vs. Democratic margins
    • Higher numbers suggest stronger Republican performance
Why the Partisan Lean Matters
  • Quick Snapshot of Political Climate — Think of this as a temperature check for how a district typically votes in recent statewide races.
  • Ballpark for Strategic Decisions — Whether you're exploring grassroots outreach or policy advocacy, knowing the lean helps gauge how receptive the district might be to different messages.
Important Caveats
  • Local Nuances — This lean is derived from statewide contests, which may differ from local issues or candidate-driven races.
  • Context Still Matters — Economic shifts, demographic changes, or notable events can alter voter behavior in ways the lean doesn’t fully capture.
  • Not a Crystal Ball — It’s a valuable shorthand, but cannot predict every race’s exact outcome.
Important Notes:
  • The analysis uses either 2016-2022 or 2018-2024, depending on whether 2024 results are available for this jurisdiction
  • Third party candidates aren't included in this calculation
  • Only races with both Democratic and Republican candidates are included
  • The number updates automatically when new election results come in